A hospital reports that more accidents happen on days when more ice cream is sold. The most likely explanation is that
Correct answer: C. both rise in hot weather, which is a common cause
- A. ice cream causes accidents
- B. accidents cause ice cream sales
- C. both rise in hot weather, which is a common cause
- D. the report is fabricated
Explanation
Hot weather increases both outdoor activity, and therefore accidents, and ice cream sales, so the two are linked through a third variable rather than to each other. This is the textbook example of a confounding variable. Neither of the direct causal readings makes sense on inspection.
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About Critical Thinking
Critical thinking examines how conclusions follow from evidence, including claims, assumptions, arguments, inferences and relevant facts. Questions ask you to identify hidden assumptions, distinguish strong from weak evidence, assess cause and effect, recognise common reasoning errors, and decide which statement strengthens or weakens an argument.
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